Longshot Bias Calibration Curve
Implied probability vs actual win rate — deviation from the 45° line reveals mispricing
Maker-Taker Return Decomposition
Excess return by price level — the structural wealth transfer from takers to makers
Category Efficiency Spectrum
Maker-taker gap by category — wider gap = more extraction
YES / NO Asymmetry
Expected value divergence between YES and NO contracts at equivalent prices
Temporal Evolution of Wealth Transfer
Quarterly maker-taker gap with volume overlay — the professionalization of liquidity
Live Anomaly Detection Feed
Simulated real-time irregularity scanner across all categories
The Optimism Tax: Deep Dive
Takers disproportionately buy YES at longshot prices, paying a structural premium for affirmative outcomes
Dollar-weighted excess return for all YES contract buyers
Dollar-weighted excess return for all NO contract buyers
NO contracts outperform YES at 69 of 99 price levels
At 1¢: YES EV = -41%, NO EV = +23% — a 64pp gap
Taker Flow Composition: YES vs NO Volume Share
At longshot prices (1-10¢), takers account for 41-47% of YES volume vs only 20-24% for makers
Volume Distribution by Category
Sports dominates with 72% of all notional volume